The other day, I was making a quick grocery run—coffee, chicken, and a bag of dog treats (which somehow always costs more than I expect)—when a guy stops me near the bananas.

He points to my Iron Valley polo and says, “Hey, you’re in real estate, right? So… how’s the market?”

Now normally, that’s when I go into local stats—what’s moving in Seminole County, how fast homes are going under contract, that sort of thing. But instead, I tossed the question back to him:

“You tell me—what’s your sense of where the market’s headed?”

He shrugged and said something that stopped me in my tracks.

“We’re just renting for now. We’ll probably buy eventually… but we’re waiting for the crash. Foreclosures are going up, right? I figure we’ll get something at a 20% discount when the bottom drops out.”

Now, I hear this line more than you might think. It’s out there—in YouTube videos, social posts, headlines with words like “surge” and “crisis.” And I get it. When everything from gas to eggs is more expensive, it’s easy to believe housing must be next.

But here’s what I told him:

---

This Isn’t 2008

Yes, foreclosure filings have ticked up recently. But let’s put that in perspective.

During the pandemic, there were moratoriums in place—basically a giant pause button. So the numbers from 2020 and 2021 were artificially low. Now that those protections are lifted, we’re seeing some normalization—but we’re still well below the levels we saw during the crash.

And that’s important. Because back then, lenders were handing out risky loans like candy. People bought homes they couldn’t afford, had little-to-no equity, and when the market shifted—boom. Foreclosures spiked and home prices tanked.

Today’s market is different. Very different.

Lending standards are stricter. Most homeowners are in solid financial shape. And here’s the kicker—they’ve got equity. A lot of it. Even if someone hits a rough patch, they can sell before they ever go into foreclosure.

As Rick Sharga, a well-respected industry voice, recently said:

“A significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.”

In other words: this isn’t a house of cards. It’s a house with solid footing.

---

What Waiting Might Actually Cost You

I didn’t lecture the guy in the produce aisle. That’s not my style. I just said something like:

“Look, I get why you’re hesitant. But waiting for a crash that likely isn’t coming could mean missing out. Rents are still rising. If rates drop, buyer demand will spike—and prices probably will too.”

He nodded and said he hadn’t thought of it that way.

The truth is, I talk to people like him all the time—smart folks who just want to make a good decision. They’re not trying to time the market. They’re trying to make sense of it.

That’s where I come in.

---

Bottom Line:
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a 20% discount, you might be waiting a long time. The crash isn’t coming. The market is stabilizing—not collapsing.

When you’re ready to get real about your options—or just want someone to walk you through what’s really going on—I’m here. No pressure, no hard sell. Just straight talk (maybe even over rotisserie chicken).

---